* Valuations sparking talk of a buying opportunityBy Ben BerkowitzOct 17 (Reuters) - Insurance companies look set to report
weak third-quarter earnings after falling markets and Mother
Nature conspired to batter an industry that already was having
one of its worst years.The financial results may put further pressure on already
depressed stock prices, potentially creating a buying
opportunity for patient investors.The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell more than 14 percent
in the quarter, while long-term Treasury yields fell more than
120 basis points. Those declines could hurt major life
insurers, which have big stock and bond holdings in their vast
investment portfolios.Meanwhile, Hurricane Irene was the first tropical cyclone
to make U.S. landfall in three years, and dueling floods and
droughts ravaged the Midwestern states, hurting property
insurers.Some of the bad news has already started. MetLife ,
the nation’s largest life insurer, warned of up to $275 million
in charges for disaster losses in its home and auto business
and reserve increases in its life business.Allstate , the largest publicly traded U.S. home and
auto insurer, has said it had lost more than $800 million on
disasters in July and August.Stack all of that on top of the industry’s more than $70
billion catastrophe losses in the first eight months of the
year, plus the ongoing effects of the European debt crisis, and
there is little cause for optimism.”The impact of these macro factors will be felt by all
companies we follow, and the (third-quarter) results and
accompanying outlooks will provide insight into the degree of
impact,” Langen McAlenney analysts said in a note on Tuesday.At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen 2.6 percent this
year, while the S&P insurance index was down 12.9
percent.DISASTROUS SUMMERAnalysts have not thrown in the towel yet on property and
casualty companies, but they say Hurricane Irene, continuing
losses from the March earthquake in Japan, and weak equity
markets will drag on results.On Oct. 6, KBW cut earnings estimates for dozens of
companies, some by half or more and many to far below Wall
Street consensus.The firm was not alone, though. According to Thomson
Reuters data, mean earnings estimates have fallen nearly 10
percent in the last month for Travelers Cos and nearly
40 percent for Allstate.”The (property & casualty) insurance business is a
financial business and subject to many of the same concerns
pressuring all financials,” KBW’s Cliff Gallant wrote. “A weak
global economy, dwindling interest rates, and exposure to
potentially severe problems in Europe have all driven up risk
and fear and will likely lead to weaker (returns on equity).”At current prices, the property insurance sector is trading
at about 0.85 times book value, according to Thomson Reuters
data, compared with historical multiples of around 2.0 and even
troughs that were closer to book.”The sector is cheap, far beyond what the fundamentals
support,” JMP Securities analyst Matt Carletti wrote in a
Monday note. “Identifying a catalyst for near-term change is
difficult, but pressures are building.”LONG LIFE, LONG OBLIGATIONSThings are not necessarily any better for life insurers.
Even though policies are selling, terrible returns on the
companies’ investments stand to eat into income.Accountants say life insurers will have to cope with years
of weak returns that could, over time, force them to reconsider
the products they sell.In the short term, though, they have to try to figure out
how to make money with what they’ve got.”Earnings growth is slowing primarily due to the
decline in equity markets, the low interest rate environment
and (accounting charges) from weak equity markets,” Barclays
Capital analyst Jay Gelb said in an early October note.Life insurers are also unusually cheap, Gelb said. On a
price-to-earnings ratio basis, they were trading at a 28
percent discount to property companies, he said, even though
they usually trade at a premium.The median price-to-2011-earnings ratio for the life
insurance sector stands at 7.2, according to Thomson Reuters
data, while Barclays said its historical average was around
11.4.Life insurers’ valuations may improve once markets
stabilize, Gelb said.
@7 months ago with 53 notes
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